Bitcoin October Rally Faces Macro Headwinds
As the fourth quarter approaches, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from macroeconomic factors, including surging Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar, according to AMBCrypto. Following a recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.734 percent, reaching its highest level in 26 months. Goldman Sachs has already priced in an additional rate hike for the upcoming October FOMC meeting, signaling a hawkish monetary policy environment that could persist.
Data cited from the Kobeissi Letter indicates that a move in the 10-year Treasury yield toward the 6 percent threshold next year cannot be ruled out following a breakout above 5 percent. These rising yields, combined with the U.S. Dollar Index moving above 100, threaten to tighten global liquidity and weigh heavily on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Despite these macro headwinds, traders continue to position for a potential fourth quarter rebound. Bitcoin open interest increased by roughly 10,000 contracts following the FOMC announcement, pointing to fresh speculative capital entering the market. Market participants are watching Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near the $70,000 level as a crucial near-term support threshold. A decisive break below this mark could trigger additional liquidations and selling pressure, raising risks for the broader market as it heads into October.
Based on reporting by ambcrypto.com.
